The biggest ecommerce event of the year is almost here: Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2024.
We’re not lying: total sales for the holiday season are expected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2024, and shopping on Black Friday alone will be worth $10 billion.
Things are a little more unpredictable this year, with an election season and economic volatility contributing to heightened competition and an earlier buying season, which may lead to shopper fatigue. This year, more than ever, direct to consumer (DTC) brands must be strategic and data-driven with their BFCM plans to cut through the noise and maximize success.
READ MORE | Start Your Peak Prep Early! Acquisition and Retention Strategies for BFCM
In this advertising guide, we’ll discuss what we can predict for BFCM 2024 based on last year’s statistics, offer some advertising advice from key agency partners, and present a few BFCM 2023 ads from Triple Whale brands that we loved – and what we loved about them – so you can apply these strategies to your BFCM 2024 plans!
2023 was a difficult year, with plenty of economic uncertainties plaguing both brands trying to sell products and consumers trying to make their money go further. 2024 is no different; in fact, the economic uncertainty and volatility is arguably worse.
Even with the difficult economic reality of 2023, many brands experienced sustained growth. Online retail consumers in the United States spent $9.8 billion on Black Friday, which was up 7.5% compared to 2022. Similarly, the Cyber Monday spend for online retail in the United States hit $12.4 billion, up 9.6% over 2022.
It’s an election year, and political advertisers are expected to ramp up advertising on digital channels. In the 2022 midterm elections in the United States, digital ad spend by political campaigns reached $1.2 billion, which represented a 50% increase over the 2018 midterms. More political ads means higher competition for eyeballs, and it will be more difficult to spread brand awareness ahead of the election.
In the Triple Whale BFCM Retrospective Report that investigated the ad performance for over 11,000 brands, we found that during BFCM 2023:
Past experience (and numbers) indicate to us that BFCM 2024 will be a huge event.
Based on what we know from past experience, BFCM 2024 is sure to be a banger. With that in mind, we asked eight of Triple Whale’s agency partners to provide their predictions for the trends that will dominate BFCM 2024, with some advice on how you can apply it to your own BFCM marketing strategy.
We said BFCM 2024 would be unpredictable, but there are a few things we (and our agency partners) expect to see for the busiest holiday season of the year. Let’s get into it!
Platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have seen a massive surge in popularity in recent years. TikTok has over 1 billion active monthly users, and Instagram Reels and YouTube shorts are rapidly catching up.
Here are the reasons why short-form video content is favored for DTC brands:
Attention-grabbing: As our attention spans get shorter, it’s necessary to make concise videos perfectly suited for the modern audience.
Accessible & Entertaining: Short-form videos are highly entertaining, and offer a quick escape that provides humor, education, and inspiration in a perfectly-sized package.
Storytelling ability: Since they’re short, these videos have the power to tell a great story, but quickly. Creative editing and captivating visuals paired with trending music or sounds can be the secret to reaching your target audience within minutes.
Relatable: There is a shift in 2024 towards “more authentic content—think user-generated videos and influencer collaborations that feel real. It’s not about high-production value anymore; it’s about relatability.” -James Jago, Meta Paid Ads Manager, Rainy City
Influencer partnerships: Brands will partner with influencers and experts to host live shopping events, which can create a sense of urgency for shoppers.
Besides maximizing short-form video content for BFCM, brands should also ensure they employ a “mobile-first approach to ensure a seamless mobile shopping experience, as the majority of BFCM traffic will come from mobile devices.” - Robert Pearson, CMO at Rareview.
When new customers land on your website during BFCM, you know they’re hunting for deals. It’s time to pull the ‘ole switcheroo and make them love you so much they keep coming back for more than just one deal!
Personalized product bundles
How do you do this? By getting to know your customer, of course, by using first- and zero-party data. One valuable way to collect that information is with a post-purchase survey that digs deeper into where the customer discovered you, as well as some personal details to tailor product bundles in the future that fully align with their preferences.
Then, use the data gathered to generate AI-driven insights for which products are most likely to be purchased together by that specific customer, creating a bundle that is truly aligned with individual customer needs. The extra bonus here is that a personalized bundle offers a sense of exclusivity and value.
Loyalty programs that go beyond the discount
You can make a loyal customer out of a deal seeker, and one way to do this is to extend loyalty rewards beyond BFCM weekend. You could employ cash-back strategies, access to exclusive content, or early access to product launches to get customers to come back. Additionally, gamifying the loyalty program by rewarding purchases made during BFCM with points or benefits that unlock after BFCM is done can encourage customers to return. When brands build customer engagement through ongoing incentives, they can create a strong sense of belonging that cultivates brand loyalty.
There’s been a shift in consumer behavior as of late, with an “underconsumption core” trend gaining traction on TikTok. What this translates to is a championing of minimalism and frugality that encourages people to only buy what they truly need, with many Millennial and Gen Z shoppers embracing it wholeheartedly. They’re not posting their big hauls of clothing purchases, but instead showing off thrift store finds and well-used, everyday items.
The rise of this trend is unsurprising, since young people today are faced with increased economic pressures, environmental concerns, and social pressures. Underconsumption is a direct reaction to overconsumption, and the rise of “deinfluencing” is something to take note of.
This means there needs to be a shift in ad messaging to reflect the quality and longevity of a product to reach consumers that are searching for products that fit a need, instead of something they’d just buy… to buy.
Discount strategies and messaging
Since customers are spending less, they need to know why a product is worth an investment. An example for luxury goods might be to highlight a “cost per wear" metric to reinforce the product's long-term value. In terms of discounting, consumers are well aware that BFCM is more than just four days. One strategy could be to keep discounts appealing and consistent throughout the entire period, from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving throughout the weekend following Cyber Monday.
As we look ahead to BFCM 2024, one thing is clear: ad spend is set to outpace last year. What’s interesting is the shift we’re expecting in creative strategy. Instead of seeing tons of new formats, brands will lean on what's already working—evergreen ads with a simple Black Friday, Cyber Monday twist. Proven, reliable, and effective.
Our mantra for this year? If you’re early, you’re on time. If you’re on time, you’re late. Brands are likely to start their BFCM push around November 9th and keep the momentum going past Cyber Monday, potentially extending to December 8th.
We’re also predicting that many brands will get creative with inventory, offering "gift with purchase" deals to clear stock through Christmas. The real action will happen between November 9th and December 19th, where the best offers will likely be exhausted.
Even though short-form video content is especially effective, Toby Waller from Brick Social predicts that there will be a resurgence of static ads for BFCM 2024.
Static ads are a reliable choice for BFCM 2024 for a few reasons:
Cost-effective: Static ads are typically cheaper to produce and run than video ads, which is especially beneficial during BFCM when advertising costs are higher due to higher competition. Static ads can help a brand maintain a presence without exceeding their advertising budget.
Simple and clear: A great way to deliver a straightforward message quickly during BFCM! During this period, shoppers are often bombarded with multiple promotions. A well-designed static ad with a clear call-to-action can cut through the noise and immediately convey the deal, which can increase the likelihood of conversions.
Quick loading times: Static ads load faster than video or animated ads, which is important for maintaining a seamless customer experience. Faster load times can reduce bounce rates and keep customers engaged, especially on mobile devices where the majority of shopping occurs during BFCM.
Retargeting efficiency: Since static ads can be easily personalized to remind past visitors of products they viewed or added to their cart, they can be especially effective for retargeting campaigns.
Wide reach and compatibility: Static ads are compatible across all platforms and devices, which means they can be easily integrated into various advertising platforms and formats, ensuring the campaign reaches a broad audience without any technical issues.
While BFCM is the busiest shopping event of the year, it’s wise to think about how to nurture new customers acquired during this time to make the most of the remaining months of the year.
It’s all about what happens after the click. Are they browsing your products? Are they dropping off? Brands that track and act on these post-click behaviors will be able to optimize in real-time and outperform the competition. The consumer journey is getting more complex, and if you’re only looking at surface metrics, you’re missing the full picture.
READ MORE | How to Manage Your Sales During BFCM
Focusing on maximizing Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) means a brand is identifying and prioritizing acquiring high-value customers who are more likely to make repeat purchases. When running ads, ROAS is a great metric for measuring how effective advertising campaigns are. When competition and ad costs are high during BFCM, optimizing for a great return on ad spend can enable a business to allocate resources to the most effective campaigns to maximize returns.
Long-term profitability is important, and running and managing your ads with a view of CLV and ROAS can ensure you have a comprehensive view of ads to ensure future sustainable growth.
One great way to do this on the fly during BFCM is to use Triple Whale’s pre-built BFCM dashboards!
Everyone’s purse strings are a little tighter this year. By using Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) features during BFCM, you can make it possible for customers to still make a purchase during the season that can be paid off later.
The benefits for the customer are obvious: they can spread the cost of their purchase over time without needing to pay the full amount, which means they might be able to buy a few more gifts during the season than they may have otherwise. This can make the purchasing power for high-priced items more acceptable, and provide an option to grab that larger purchase they may have foregone otherwise.
For the business, there is money up front and immediate cash flow; despite the customer enjoying flexible payment terms, platforms like Klarna and Afterpay provide the business with the full purchase price of the item immediately. It can also help with attracting new customers who prefer flexible payment options, which are common amongst Millennial and Gen Z shoppers. At least providing the option ensures that the business stays competitive, with many other businesses in the DTC space choosing to offer the option. During a highly competitive BFCM period, the ability to BNPL might be the deciding factor for a customer evaluating a purchase from multiple retailers.
Advertising isn’t happening in just one channel, which is exactly why a cross-channel attribution tool is necessary to see the big picture. You can understand the full impact of your marketing efforts with Triple Whale.
A holistic view of marketing efforts allows a business to see and understand how different marketing channels contribute to conversions. This perspective can clear up how the customer journey progresses across multiple channels, ensuring that no single channel’s impact is underestimated.
One reason to utilize cross-channel attribution tools is because in-platform metrics might be disproportionately weighted. If your business relies heavily on product ads and Performance Max (PMAX) campaigns on Google Ads, it’s important you don’t undervalue these efforts due to Meta’s single-channel attribution, particularly regarding ROAS. If your business’s primary marketing efforts depend on Meta, it’s important to ensure the Conversions API (CAPI) is properly configured to help clarify attribution on the platform.
Sonar by Triple Whale will send enriched first-party customer and conversion data back to marketing platforms like Meta and Klaviyo (with more coming soon). The result? Improved targeting, boosted campaign ROI, and improved EMQ scores in-platform. Ensure you’re ready with the extra conversion data necessary to maximize your BFCM campaigns!
Even before pumpkin pie was served last Thanksgiving, these five Triple Whale customers were running some quality ads. Sometimes, it’s best to keep it simple! Here’s what we liked most about each:
Always funny, always on point - that’s True Classic. What we like most:
Hey, everyone can use a leather bag or a wallet. What we like about this one:
Doe Lashes knows their target demographic, and they love explainer videos from TikTok.
This ad features a cat, so it’s already #1 in my books.
BFCM 2024 promises to be a record-breaking event, and leveraging data-driven insights, strategic advertising, and the latest consumer trends, DTC brands can navigate the challenges presented in this peak shopping season.
The key takeaways from this guide emphasize the importance of early preparation, producing engaging short-form content, personalizing product offerings and creating loyalty-based incentives, as well as effective use of cross-channel attribution tools. When focusing on these strategies, brands can maximize their BFCM sales, but work to build the lasting customer relationships that drive long-term growth.
As you gear up for BFCM 2024, remember to stay agile and monitor your performance metrics closely so you’re ready to adapt your strategies in real-time. Need more tips to own BFCM? Check out the BFCM resource hub to dive deeper into stats, strategies, and tools to get you there!
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